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Saturday, May 5, 2018

Harapan will WIN 118 seats to PutraJaya

My calculation: Harapan to win 118 seats

 (Updated )
LETTER | Based on data from the recent delineation exercise by the Election Commission, the recent voter demographics, the addition of new voters, various analytics by both mainstream and non-mainstream sources including both Merdeka Centre and Invoke, I have calculated the outcome of Malaysia’s 14th general elections (GE14).
The first focus is on Peninsular Malaysia. The racial demographics of Peninsular Malaysia is categorised into four categories:
  • Malay-majority seats in Kelantan and Terengganu, which consist of 22 seats. To simplify the analysis, Chinese and Indians populations are deemed negligible, hence their population is keyed in as zero.
  • Malay-majority seats with an average of 90% Malay population for all states in Peninsular Malaysia (except Kelantan and Terengganu), which consist of 28 seats.
  • Malay-medium majority seats (with an average of 70 to 80% Malay population), which consist of 65 seats.
  • Mixed and Chinese seats which consists of 50 seats, where Malay population is 65% (as per national average) or lower. The reason mixed and Chinese seats are lumped together is because based on the simulation, Pakatan Harapan is expected to win 99% of those seats regardless of whether the ratio has 65% Malays or less. This point may seem controversial but it’ll be explained later.
For all peninsular states except Kelantan and Terengganu, BN’s Malay support is predicted to drop from GE13’s 65% to 45%, in line with forecasts from several non-mainstream findings. Chinese and Indian support to remain the same as GE13.
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The latest report from Merdeka Centre states that BN’s drop in Malay support in the peninsula is only 8% as of mid-April 2018. However, Merdeka Centre did state that the drop in Johor is 20.9%. In reality, this author argues that the fall is more drastic. Bear in mind that survey respondents are usually cautious (especially in a BN-governed state) when answering surveys in fear of reprisal from the ruling government, hence resulting in a response bias towards BN.
Furthermore, the survey by Merdeka Centre is flawed because it has zero fence-sitters and undecided voters, where it is highly probable that the majority of them will ultimately swing to Harapan. Hence, the survey result is BN biased.
In spite of the result bias, Johor is estimated to fall 20.9%, Selangor 17.2% and Perak 8.9%. So we can safely add more percentage points to these figures. This writer predicts an additional 5 to 10 percentage points in line with Invoke’s data. In fact, Invoke’s latest data has BN’s Malay support languishing in the high 30s to low 40s.
Merdeka Centre’s data on Kedah's shows a 1.1% drop in Malay support for BN. This has to be the most controversial and outrageous take on GE14 as data from other findings is pointing to a similar if not larger drop as that suffered in Johor.
In fact, the writer posits that if anything, Kedah has the biggest fall in Malay support for BN, possibly even in the 30s. Harapan is widely expected to smash BN in this state due to the Mahathir and Mukhriz one-two punch.
Pakatan Rakyat’s Malay support in GE13 was 35% and it is assumed 15% of that belongs to PAS in all states except for Kelantan and Terengganu, which is in line with Invoke’s survey result which states PAS’ support level has dropped from 18% to 13% in the past month.
Hence, Harapan will lose 15% of Malay support to PAS, but gain 20% of Malay support from BN, for a total of 40% Malay support. Merdeka Centre’s result however differs widely, stating that PAS has 27% Malay support as opposed to Harapan’s 20%.
This writer posits that Merdeka Centre’s result is flawed as it lumps PAS’ support together for the whole of the peninsula when in reality the result skews heavily to PAS in Kelantan and Terengganu but is almost negligible in the west coast states. Hence, the opinion here is that BN’s loss will be Harapan’s gain in all states par Kelantan and Terengganu.
For Kelantan and Terengganu, BN and PAS are predicted to be evenly matched, with Harapan not making much of a dent. To simplify this analysis, Chinese and Indian votes are considered as negligible in this category.
The mixed and Chinese seats are lumped together instead of separately because they yield the same result regardless of whether the ratio has 65% Malays or 50% Malays or lesser. To simplify this analysis, the race composition for this category is considered the same as our national ratio of 65% Malays, 25% Chinese and 10% Indians, even though in reality it differs according to areas.
But it won’t influence the result as Harapan is expected to win 99% of these seats due to the aforesaid 20% Malay swing and the overwhelming Chinese support.
There’s no doubt that BN’s 65% Malay support in GE13 will be reduced, mainly due to resentment towards caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak and the BN government he leads, and the addition of onr million new Malay voters. The question is by how many percentage points the Malay swing will be.
There were about 8.7 million eligible Malay voters in GE13. The addition of 1 million new Malay voters translates into an 11.4% increase. If 70% of new Malay voters support Harapan (based on non-mainstream findings), that’s already a swing of about 5%.
So a total swing of 20 percentage points is not that far-fetched. In fact, it’s quite conservative as Merdeka Centre already puts the swing as 8% in spite of the survey weakness highlighter earlier while Invoke’s one is in the high 20s.
The results are shown below.
So based on a “conservative” 20% Malay swing, and assuming that the Chinese turn out in droves to vote like in GE13, this simulation shows that Harapan can win about 100 seats in Peninsular alone.
With that in hand, Harapan only need another 12 seats from East Malaysia to form the federal government, but in all likelihood, they’ll need about 18-20 to form a stable government. In the last election, Pakatan Rakyat won nine seats in east Malaysia.
Assuming the status quo is maintained in Sarawak with Harapan winning six seats, the remaining bulk of seats is expected to come from Sabah, especially now that is has a united opposition front and with Warisan having taken the mantle of state autonomy call.
If the current groundswell momentum in east Sabah is anything to go by, Warisan is expected to clinch it for Harapan. The writer predicts a total of 12 seats to be won by Warisan and PKR in Sabah, hence Harapan to form the next federal government with a total of 118 seats. Pakatan Harapan to win GE14.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini

Monday, April 30, 2018

Harapan Rakyat Malaysia

Why simple majority? Harapan should go for broke, aim for two-thirds

 (Updated )
LETTER | A two-thirds majority in the current Parliament means 148 seats, a mythical figure that may, on surface, seem beyond the reach of all opposition coalitions, especially if it is an alliance that has barely been formed a year ago, as is the case with Pakatan Harapan.
This is where the story gets interesting, and where political science clashes with the dreams of all sharp analysts, who from time to time, are willing to rethink the laws by which the politicians themselves have violated.
Let's face it. In politics, the golden law is so simple almost to the point of being crude: you break it, you own it. In the case of Malaysia, Najib has ruined Malaysia completely, to which all redemption now rests on the people's revolt on May 9. And, the odds of the latter happening are getting stronger by the day.
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This law is further reinforced by all three principles of Newtonian mechanics: The first law states that every object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless compelled to change its state by the action of an external force. This is normally taken as the definition of inertia.
The second law explains how the velocity of an object changes when it is subjected to an external force.
The third law states that for every action (force) in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction. In other words, if object A exerts a force on object B, then object B also exerts an equal force on object A.
BN and Umno, according to the first law, are not inert. In fact, they have been over zealous in creating wealth (for themselves), invariably through schemes like 1MDB, Felda, Bandar Malaysia, and TRX land swaps, that each failure has resulted in the distortion of BN and Umno's own trajectory. Bersatu was formed to pursue the Malay struggle, instead of leaving it all to Umno alone.
The more BN and Umno try to swivel and pivot in the international and corporate arena, the more they are known as a corrupt political regime; with even more corruptive influence on the political economy of Malaysia. If a well-managed economy is the proverbial China shop, Umno is the bull that left every piece of fine porcelain shattered to bits on the floor.
The results are plain as day if we take an objective measure like the 2008 and 2013 elections (with the caveat that we know elections are neither free nor fair). The loss of popular votes every time Umno tried to win back voters on account of its poor record of managing the nation has been an abysmal failure.
They lost the two-thirds majority in Parliament in 2008 – unprecedented. And they lost the popular vote in 2013 – again, unprecedented.
Not much has changed since 2013. In fact, things have only gotten worse with the losses at 1MDB. Once again Umno has tried to paper over the failures with an absurd claim that but for a faulty business model everything would have been just fine at 1MDB. This is the trajectory Umno cannot waver from not matter what schemes it tries.
The second law of Newton, while more complicated, is simple: the faster your fall, when new speed is added to an object. The proliferation of social media has made BN and Umno oblivious to the fact that they now operate in realms where a hyper demanding society is demanding more from the government, than what the latter alone can offer.
BN and Umno cannot match Harapan precisely because the latter is able to keep up with social media, invariably, the netizens, while BN and Umno are always wallowing in smut.
The third law of Newton is equally applicable to Umno and BN in the 14th general election, if not since 1999 too. For every action, there is equal reaction.
By bullying, indeed, bulldozing its way through Malaysia – as if it alone owns Malaysia not others – BN and Umno are now looking at total revolt from Kangar in Perlis to Kota Kinabalu in Sabah.
The jailing of Anwar led to the formation of Parti Keadlian Malaysia in 1998, which later became PKR.
The offering of indelible ink as a means to control illicit voting followed by the revelation that the ink was defective lead to voter outrage and increased turnout.
Setting elections on a Wednesday sparked an outrage online forcing the caretaker prime minister to offer up Wednesday as a National holiday and giving Pakatan Harapan the opportunity to offer May 10 and 11 as a holiday.
There is virtually no end to the examples one can cite.
Of course, we can add other laws of politics. And, they always apply without fail. It was former US speaker of the House, ‘Tip’ O’ Neill, who famously said that "all politics are local." By raising GST, passing the Anti Fake News Act 2018 unilaterally, BN and Umno have not only made "politics local," but extremely personal.
The last law is that coined by US senator William Fulbright: "That truth is the first casualty of war." BN and Umno know they have walked into a war-like situation, where four opposition coalition parties, together with various strategic partners in civil society, have teamed up, to dislodge the ruling regime.
Thus, the latter has resorted to cooking the books on 1MDB just to redeem itself as a worthy second sovereign fund, this despite the fact that 1MDB has failed completely, even by the admission of caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak on April 26 in Bloomberg.
Regardless of which laws, be they Newtonian, or sheer folkloric observations from Western political traditions, Umno and BN have run afoul of, Najib is trapped, and together with him, is PAS.
Both parties have formed alliances to be the king and kingmaker. Yet divine and natural laws, too, do not respect a total lunge for power.
To be sure, 99 percent of Malaysians have some form of theological beliefs that constitute a basic respect for the spiritual realm. By gorging themselves with debts which the people must repay, and seeking power solely for the sake of power and not the greater good, which usurps citizen’s rights, Malaysians will trigger one of the biggest electoral tsunamis in the world on May 9.
What purpose can a Fake News law serve if the majority of the country’s mainstream media is in the business of producing fake news day in and day out for the last two decades.
Those who are not in the clear will be completely overwhelmed. They will soon be at the outside looking in, or, perhaps, the inside looking out, if the relevant laws on massive criminal breach of trust are brought to bear on all the key stakeholders in Umno and BN.
Thus, a two-thirds majority in favour of Pakatan Harapan cannot – and must not – be ruled out in Malaysia. Like proverbial New Yorkers, who don't get mad, but get even, Malaysia is now at the tipping point, to get even; potentially even exceeding all the expectations of the polling firms.
After miscuing on Trump's surprise victory and Brexit, one would have assumed that the polling firms should know that their methods are not flawless.
Yet, there are many in and out of Malaysia who are not looking at the raw emotions of the people per se. These are people who have felt the full effect of being used and abused by their own elected government.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.